dollar held
All too often when we find ourselves in need of a doctor, a
lawyer, a dentist, or a financial advisor we turn to the least qualified
people for guidance; our family, friends and our other advisers. The
fact is that in today's world the playing field of medicine, law, and
finance is changing so fast that the professional who has the good old
boy reputation is not the most qualified provider of advice.
In many cases the best is not the guy with the big office and the large staffs with years experience but instead the hard worker with the most current education and information. Having spent my career in the world of finance it became evident to me that continuing education was as important as years of experience. As we have seen in the past year investment derivatives has drastically changed the world of investments. If your broker was not well schooled and well read you sat with him or her and saw your portfolio shrink on a daily basis while being advised that our banking system is strong and this down turn will not last. Yet if your advisor had read The Trillion Dollar Meltdown by Charles R. Morris published February, 2008, he could have given you a day by day description of what was going to happen to the investment markets over the following months. Since then the S&P 500 has lost over 35% of it value, City Group has gone from $29.00 to $4.00 per share and AIG has gone from $56.00 per share to $1.00 per share. You and your investment advisor would have understood Credit Default Swaps and how they compounded the problems of the Sub-Prime mess. You could have chosen not to participate in the past years crises.
Thankfully I did read Charles Morris's book but got caught by a series of unqualified and uneducated doctor's years earlier resulting in the amputation of my daughters left foot because for fifteen years her doctors misdiagnosed a cancerous tumor in her foot. The lesson to be learned is to research your professional advice providers.
Do they have professional designations, are they in good standing with their professional organizations, do they teach within their profession? In short are they current with the latest information within their field?
I was motivated by my daughter's question: "Dad why did this happen to me, I'm a good person?" Since my retirement in June 2004 I have worked to find reason for what happened to her. I designed and built a website BestofUS in an effort to help other people avoid the mistake that we made and give some level of guidance on where to look for the best professional in the United States. We as consumers have to take on some level responsibility for our health, our wealth, and our wellbeing. If we don't we will continue to be victims.
In many cases the best is not the guy with the big office and the large staffs with years experience but instead the hard worker with the most current education and information. Having spent my career in the world of finance it became evident to me that continuing education was as important as years of experience. As we have seen in the past year investment derivatives has drastically changed the world of investments. If your broker was not well schooled and well read you sat with him or her and saw your portfolio shrink on a daily basis while being advised that our banking system is strong and this down turn will not last. Yet if your advisor had read The Trillion Dollar Meltdown by Charles R. Morris published February, 2008, he could have given you a day by day description of what was going to happen to the investment markets over the following months. Since then the S&P 500 has lost over 35% of it value, City Group has gone from $29.00 to $4.00 per share and AIG has gone from $56.00 per share to $1.00 per share. You and your investment advisor would have understood Credit Default Swaps and how they compounded the problems of the Sub-Prime mess. You could have chosen not to participate in the past years crises.
Thankfully I did read Charles Morris's book but got caught by a series of unqualified and uneducated doctor's years earlier resulting in the amputation of my daughters left foot because for fifteen years her doctors misdiagnosed a cancerous tumor in her foot. The lesson to be learned is to research your professional advice providers.
Do they have professional designations, are they in good standing with their professional organizations, do they teach within their profession? In short are they current with the latest information within their field?
I was motivated by my daughter's question: "Dad why did this happen to me, I'm a good person?" Since my retirement in June 2004 I have worked to find reason for what happened to her. I designed and built a website BestofUS in an effort to help other people avoid the mistake that we made and give some level of guidance on where to look for the best professional in the United States. We as consumers have to take on some level responsibility for our health, our wealth, and our wellbeing. If we don't we will continue to be victims.
Dollar China
This is a moot question and there is no firm answer to this at this point of time. China has gradually started reducing its exposure to the US dollar and it may just be paring its risk, given the uncertainty of the US economic conditions or it may be strategically embattled in dethroning the US dollar as the world reserve currency.
China reduced its US Treasuries holdings substantially in June this year in the face of falling returns on the instruments. Further, China seems to be investing in government paper of Europe, Korea and Japan. As per a US government report, China reduced its holding of long term US Treasuries by $ 21.2 billion in June to $ 839.7 billion. China reportedly has purchased over $ 20 billion more of Japanese debt than it has sold. China has also reportedly doubled its debt exposure in Korea. China's move to increase its exposure in Asia appears to be aimed towards creating a more diversified investment portfolio given the uncertainty in both the US and Euro zone economies.
China's move coincides with its other strategic move to remove the peg between the Yuan and the dollar in June this year. The Chinese currency has appreciated by 0.5% since then. At the same time, the Chinese central bank has allowed foreign central banks to increase their investments in the Chinese inter bond market. The three actions when read together, suggest that China is trying to offer its currency as an alternative to the US dollar as an investment option and a reserve currency. However, the Chinese move of selling US Treasuries may simply be its strategy to book profits due to an appreciation in the investments, with the US buying its own treasuries to keep interest rates low.
With China holding the largest dollar reserves, any move by the nation to dilute its holdings could have an impact on the demand for the dollar and its exchange rate. This is a double edged sword for China as a loss in the dollar's value also results in the loss in the dollar holdings for China. As China has massive reserves of dollars, it cannot afford to let the dollar fall drastically or else it will experience erosion in the value of its dollar holdings.
While one can speculate on what China will do with its dollar holdings and how that can impact the long term value of the dollar, as of now, the dollar continues to be the dominant reserve currency as well the choice as the hedge currency. Any weakness in economic data is likely to make investors take cover in the safety of the US dollar and such a move will lead the dollar to appreciate. With the latest US housing data suggesting that the US economy is on a weak wicket, the US dollar immediately moved up and demonstrated its strength as the currency of choice in times of economic uncertainty. Existing home sales in the US fell 27.7% in July, suggesting the US economy was losing steam again. This led investors pulling out of risky securities including stock markets across the globe and running to the safe haven of the US dollar, which displayed the tendency to appreciate.
Thus, in the immediate future the US dollar continues to be king, with its long term trend depending upon a variety of factors like the performance of the US economy and moves by nations like China in relation to their massive dollar holdings amongst other factors
dollar held by a small
We thought that it would be a good time to review what is happening
to the US dollar. To us the biggest problem for the dollar is the amount
of the US trade deficit. For 2006 we will see this deficit top out at
about $700 billion.
The real problem with a deficit this size is
that that the dollars are no longer in the US and held buy Americans.
What it means is that the US has bought $700 billion more of goods than
it has sold, resulting in those dollars being held overseas. Once these
dollars have changed hands, the
holders of them are free to do with them what they please. If they decide to re-invest them into the US, either through the stock market (which has been happening until recently) or in keeping the money in US accounts to gain interest, then there is no negative effect because the dollars stay in the US.
holders of them are free to do with them what they please. If they decide to re-invest them into the US, either through the stock market (which has been happening until recently) or in keeping the money in US accounts to gain interest, then there is no negative effect because the dollars stay in the US.
The problem starts when these holders of
US dollars decide that they do not want to keep US dollars and prefer to
buy or invest into something else, such as exchanging the dollars for
euros or some other currency, or gold. As more and more holders of the
US dollar decide to reduce their US dollar holdings and invest them into
other currencies, the result is a reduction of liquidity in the US.
While
there is a great deal of US dollars being held by foreign investors,
the biggest holders are foreign central banks. It is these central banks
that we believe will start to reduce their holdings of the US dollar to
diversify away from one main foreign reserve holding. And we believe
that this
move away from the US dollar has already begun. Many of these banks have been sending out the word that this is exactly their intention. It is a real juggling act because no country wants to the dollar collapse, especially since most of the central banks still hold a huge percentage of their
foreign reserve in the US dollar.
move away from the US dollar has already begun. Many of these banks have been sending out the word that this is exactly their intention. It is a real juggling act because no country wants to the dollar collapse, especially since most of the central banks still hold a huge percentage of their
foreign reserve in the US dollar.
They all want to reduce
their exposure to the dollar, but do not want any other central bank to
panic and have a run on the dollar. But they are certainly giving us
plenty of hints to suggest that many of these central banks want to
reduce their holdings of the US dollar and diversify into other
currencies and gold. Some examples:
currencies and gold. Some examples:
o Nov 9/06 - China
announces plans to diversify out of the dollar. From Bloomberg: Gold in
New York gained the most since June on speculation China will boost
purchases of the precious metal to diversify its foreign-exchange
reserves. "All central banks are trying to diversify," People's
Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a conference in Frankfurt. "We have had a very clear diversification plan for several years."
Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a conference in Frankfurt. "We have had a very clear diversification plan for several years."
o November 17/06 - United Arab Emirates Governor
speculates Euro will over take US dollar. From Bloomberg: "United Arab
Emirates Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi comments on
the outlook for the euro overtaking the U.S. dollar as the dominant
reserve currency for international trade... 'I would say the euro will
definitely grow to dominate trade outside the euro area. I expect the
euro to become the currency of international trade within 10 years. It
will surpass the dollar by 2015.
My issue with Todd Grantham
I just don't agree with or understand what he wants to do from a base philosophical level. It's not play calling or technique that I can't wrap my head around. It's not even our inability to tackle that drives me crazy. It's the intrinsic way he goes about his business that baffles me.
Tyler has alluded to some of this earlier in the year. Across the board, he surrenders our natural competitive recruiting / depth advantages due to the systemic way he goes about his business.
Against peer schools, all of those problems can be magnified.
Yes, UGA was young on defense this year, and that was a massive contributing factor in the 30 pts/game allowed defensively. But how much more experienced would we have been in 2013 if guys like Sheldon Dawson, Corey Moore and Josh Harvey-Clemons would have seen meaningful minutes in 2012? In 2012, we won the following games by 3+ TDs:
You want more head scratchers?
What Grantham wants to do with player utilization is so nonsensical to me that is appears to be basic dumbassery. I don't get it. Hopefully, he will find employment elsewhere this off season because Richt clearly isn't going to fire the guy. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. No NFL team is going to hire him as a DC, and OLB coaches in the NFL don't make $750,000 a year.
There is a gravy train in Athens, and he's on it.
PWD
Tyler has alluded to some of this earlier in the year. Across the board, he surrenders our natural competitive recruiting / depth advantages due to the systemic way he goes about his business.
- He surrenders some of our competitive advantage of depth to smaller schools because of his unwillingness to substitute at LB or DB.
- He surrenders some of our speed advantages by creating a system that is so complex that guys are thinking on every play instead of reacting on instinct.
- He also puts himself in an inescapable youth spiral because he doesn't substitute during the season.
Against peer schools, all of those problems can be magnified.
Yes, UGA was young on defense this year, and that was a massive contributing factor in the 30 pts/game allowed defensively. But how much more experienced would we have been in 2013 if guys like Sheldon Dawson, Corey Moore and Josh Harvey-Clemons would have seen meaningful minutes in 2012? In 2012, we won the following games by 3+ TDs:
- Missouri 21 pts
- FAU 36 pts
- Vandy 45 pts
- Ole Miss 27 pts
- Auburn 38 pts
- GSU 31 pts
- GT 32 pts
You want more head scratchers?
How is Ramik Wilson is good enough to lead the SEC in tackles in 2013.... and good enough to almost never come out of a game in 2013; however, he wasn't good enough to get any meaningful snaps last year at any of the 4 LB spots? How does that make sense?
How was Brandon Langley so promising in Games 1-2 that he never came off the field, but he is now so inept or incorrigible that he hasn't seen the field in 2 months? I don't get it.
What Grantham wants to do with player utilization is so nonsensical to me that is appears to be basic dumbassery. I don't get it. Hopefully, he will find employment elsewhere this off season because Richt clearly isn't going to fire the guy. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. No NFL team is going to hire him as a DC, and OLB coaches in the NFL don't make $750,000 a year.
There is a gravy train in Athens, and he's on it.
PWD
That should end the Grantham rumors
Richt is very up front:
Big bet for Coach Richt, because as good as our team might be next year, this won't do in the context of an SEC Championship season.
TD
"Everybody should be back," Richt said, answering a question specifically about Grantham. "I mean, everybody's got to do what they've got to do as far as if they have opportunities and all that kind of thing. We have some things we've certainly got to get better at, but continuity is a good thing for Georgia."So, we'll just chalk it up to youth and move on.
Big bet for Coach Richt, because as good as our team might be next year, this won't do in the context of an SEC Championship season.
TD
Damn you, Brent Pease
Good Lord, Gators!! RT @brentdougherty: They did it again? RT @ChandlerBentley: The Florida Gators pic.twitter.com/e9IrEzZPks
— Elika Sadeghi (@steakNstiffarms) December 2, 2013Someone will need to explain how this happens. At least they are blocking someone.TD
Sunday Morning Comes: Tech
Only a few this morning:
- Todd Freaking Gurley. At the end of regulation, I looked up at our rushing stats and was stunned we only had about 80 yards. Thinking back over the game it didn't seem like we did much running, but still I thought we'd be above 100 yards. Then overtime happened and it was like Bobo and the offensive line decided 'hell no, we ain't going to get whipped by an ACC team on the line anymore.' The second TD run in OT by Gurley was easily the best blocking we'd seen all night.
- Hutson Mason. 22-36. 299 yards. 1 int. 2 tds. Only one really bad pass and that was intercepted. Still he did enough, especially in the second half, to ensure we were in a position to win. That is all you can ask for in a first start.
- Conley, welcome to the game. Good to see Chris Conley stepping up. It was apparent from the get go Mason has the confidence in him that Murray has in Bennett. That's a good thing.
- Offensive line play. Tech's D is good, but we actively allowed Attaochu to look like an All-American. He looked far more impressive that Clowney. The we blocked the way we did in the overtimes. Just headscratching.
- Coaching. Give Bobo and Richt credit, Tech had a plan for neutralizing the run and making Mason do QB things. Our second half adjustments were very strong. I'd like to give Grantham credit, as his defense did enough in the second half to allow Georgia's offense to get their feet under them. However, we never adjusted to pass plays defensively. Fortunately, the players made plays. Wilson, especially. I guess you could say that about the whole season.
I'll take a win over these guys all the time. Not even a close call.
TD
Kick Bama Kick
I can't top this:
TD
Kick Bama Kick!!!!! @CollegeAndMag
— steve williamson (@AuburnSwillie) December 1, 2013If our loss was a sucker gut punch by a man who was not even in our field of vision, that FG return for a TD was a .22 fired into the air from a mile away hitting you square between the eyes. I guess we should expect Auburn to win the SECCG on a one point safety.TD
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